24th June 2016
It’s much more complicated than that
Despite last minute attempts by Germany to woo a UK ‘stay vote’ with some very tempting offers such as:
1. We'll acknowledge the Wembley goal
2. We'll stop making jokes about Prince Charles's ears
3. We'll stop using sun cream on the beach out of solidarity with your sunburn
4. We'll reserve a place with our towels for you on the hotel sun-lounger
5. We'll introduce tea breaks
6. We'll turn our clocks back an hour to be in synch with you
7. We'll do without a goalie in penalty shoot-outs with you to make it a bit more exciting
8. We'll introduce an EU regulation banning a frothy head on beer
9. We'll all come along to the Queen's 100th birthday
10. We'll willingly provide the villain in every Bond film
we have voted to leave.
Al Murray explains how economics worked very well in 2015. As he says. it is much more complicated than that.
However you voted yesterday this might bring some cheer to your day if you are still feeling a little down.
On a more serious note, the markets are looking at doing their job of making money with fresh vigour as Brexit presents an opportunity as well as a threat. The day started with the pound taking a hit against the dollar but more interestingly the euro has collapsed against the dollar, suffering its worst fall ever in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU.
By lunchtime today , as I write, the markets have recovered half their losses already showng a loss of 4.23% on the day.
Winston Churchill said “A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty”.
A ‘Brexit’ negotiated via “article 50” will take at least two years. David Cameron was right to announce his resignation, as he would have been in an impossible position in negotiations for leaving. Do not forget there are general elections in Germany and France in 2017 and those we would start to negotiate with, in particular Merkel and Holland, may no longer be in office by then.
And, very importantly, the US Presidential elections in November.
There will be some turbulence and there will be money to be made. Markets will bounce back. The vision must be positive and this Bento is an overview of informed comments about the impact of leave.
Comments (7)
DC is to fall on his sword, hopefully followed shortly by GO, for his blackmail threat of an emergency Budget if we vote leave. JC faces a vote of no competence (oops) confidence.
Now is the time to put the "Neverendum" behind us. We need to get on with each other again and make this brave new World work for us.
Richard Brown 24/06/2016 14:35
It is no coincidence that 71% of graduates voted remain and that a poll in Money Marketing showed an overwhelming support for remain by financial advisers.
The country has behaved like a cancer sufferer who has consulted all the acknowledged expert specialists and then opted for homeopathy.
I pray the quack medicine works.
Harry Katz 25/06/2016 10:59
The truth is that our huge trade deficit with the EU means that we hold a very big trump card if it comes to a stand-off.
Now is the time for cool heads and to put together the best negotiating team we can, to ensure we do well out of this.
By the way, where's the evidence that 71% of graduates voted remain? I don't remember my voting paper asking for details of my degree. Anyway, what does having a degree (or not) have to do with the issues?
I hope that we aren't going to continue the practice of the last few months, i.e. each side making wild, unsubstantiated allegations...
Richard Brown 25/06/2016 11:47
Richard is right, the ballot sheet did not allow for a voting demographic to be calculated. We have no idea of the electoral demographics at this moment in time, their qualifications, earnings, gender, wealth and any suggestion that there was a knowledge is simply uncorroborated heresay.
Regarding IFA intentions our site poll, done by hundreds, suggested that 82.5% of advisers favoured leave. http://www.panaceaadviser.com/main/p73?pid=75
The fat lady has not yet sung in Brussels, the UK will not be alone in wanting out after this vote.
Derek Bradley 25/06/2016 14:19
The point now is that it's futile to harp on about what did/didn't/might have/ could have etc. We've excercised our democratic vote. Now WE ALL have a duty to make it work.
BBC Radio4 this morning suggested that we don't have sufficient civil servants capable of negotiating the complex matters which we need to have sorted over the coming months and years. If that is the case, then there is an even bigger duty on us to pick our own teams from commerce and the professions to ensure that the EU doesn't try to rip us off.
We also must make it clear to the EU (if necessary) that we hold a big trump card in our huge trading deficit with the EU. Even without our contributions to the EU budget, they still need us.
From the posturing so far, it is possible, even likely, that the EU will seek to extract revenge on us, for daring to thwart them, by disadvantaging our financial services sector. They will try to play hard ball and we must do the same.
If they do this, it will hurt Santander, Axa and Allianz amongst others, so it will be a shot in the foot for them. We may have to spell this out. Again our trade deficit with them will help us, if we do it nicely and not give it as an open threat.
As background information into the European psyche, one can see this well in an article Sarah Vine (Mrs Michael Gove) wrote for The Mail in February. Born in Wales, raised in Italy and speaking 4 languages, she was a "Remainer" till she thought the Remain campain had stepped over the mark. Her insight into the differences between we Brits and Europeans is illuminating - see http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3461103/The-torture-watching-husband-choose-beliefs-old-friend-PM-Daily-Mail-columnist-SARAH-VINE-s-intensely-personal-account-momentous-decision.html
Richard Brown 25/06/2016 15:31
The figure of the graduate voting is available on the BBC and that great Brexit campaigner - the Daily Telegraph. Just because you don't like the finding doesn't make it unsubstantiated. I could say much the same of practically all Brexit claims.
Yes we need to pull together if we wish to stay in the UK, but there is always the option which I guess many are now considering and which many of our bright youngsters may well take up - emigration.
I have spoken to friends and relatives in France & Germany and we are once again a laughing stock if they didnt think we were so daft. Back to the 1960s and 70s when we were the idiots of Europe and had to go cap in hand to the IMF for a bail out.
Farage would make a good opposite number to Trump. They would probably get on like a house on fire watching both their countries burn.
We wouldn't have to pull together to combat the adverse conditions if we had opted to remain. Let's see who is still smiling this time next year.
@ Derek
No the figures are out - see the articles I have referred to above. The real irony is that London won't actually fare too badly. The regions that are likely to be hurt the most are those that were most strongly Brexit.
The only London-centric matter is that fact that Parliament, where MPs come from all regions (remember Jo Cox?) were overwhelmingly in favour of Remain. Having lived in the North West for 30 years, I would not have felt any differently had I still been there and many of my friends who are still there were in favour of Remain. It is again no coincidence that the greatest concentration of graduates is in London. Indeed right up to the early 1960's Graduates had two votes and of course you had to be 21 in order to vote at all.
It seems that on average, the ignorant, xenophobic and the misinformed have yet again won the day. Yes, there have been exceptions and some otherwise bright people voted Out. I still wonder about their reasons. Immigration? Nonsense. We had more immigrants from outside the EU. The newscasts didnt show Frenchmen, Italians or even Romanians trudging across the Balkans, floating on rubber boats in the Med. Indeed the EU immigrants are on average better educated than the average indigenous population. Remember Margaret Hodge saying that 50% of the UK population didnt know what 50% means. Indeed around 47% of adults only have the numeracy ability of the average 11 year old. And that isnt anything to shout about when you consider that the UK has the highest child illiteracy and innumeracy in the developed word. No wonder Brexit was in the majority.
Harry Katz 25/06/2016 15:52
Richard Brown 25/06/2016 15:55
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