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After hating the 8 watch out for the malign 9
Beware of consensus it is often an excuse for complacency. However, when looking at 2009 there seems to be a growing consensus that its going to be a year of recession you may have hated the 8 but now prepare for the malign 9.
Some Chipped China?
We are by now quite used to those more descriptive Chinese expressions and terminology they often seem to come with references to wildlife and nature as well as a more Confucian style. Most recently though, this illustrative style seems to have been replaced with a more blatant and blunt language which reflects the more difficult economic situations that this nation is now facing.
Spend Spend Spend Please!
And so the cry goes up tax cuts give them the money and they will spend our way out of this recession. Oh the power of popular mantra. With all of the forward thinking of an excited Tigger on speed, the politicians of the world seem wide eyed with excitement in the hope that they have found the answer to economic alchemy and the end to our economic recession.
If you go down to the Woods (Bretton) today ......
This week the meeting of the G20 in Washington on the 15th has the opportunity to be an extremely important event. Although some have tagged it as the opportunity to create a new Bretton Woods international agreement for a new financial world order, the reality is going to be considerably less but nonetheless the meeting is still going to be vital. As we fumble our way through this financial fiasco, at least our leaders have realised just how internationally linked and inter-dependent we all are. Thus a meeting of the 20 including the likes of China, India and Russia, is far more realistic than the older cosy club of post WW2 capitalists.
Twenty five years ago
Twenty five years ago, if any financial services firm had been asked whether they foresaw regulation as being a positive thing, I think we can all assume that the answer would have been a resounding no.
Panaceas role is to join up the loose connections between the many thousand small, directly regulated Independent Financial Adviser firms and product providers. Over the years, smaller IFAs have lost the face to face support resource that existed for the benefit of customers. The aim is also to correct the support and service imbalance with providers currently in favour of Networks and larger national IFA firms. we have over 1000 members involved with Panacea and this is number is growing.
A Whiff of Cordite
Forgive me this week for a bit of personal commentary but the events and feelings of the past few days I think should be recorded for more proper recollection once the dust of this destruction has had time to settle.
Oriental Discounts
Its growth Jim, but not as we know it would be the Trekkies description of what has been happening in Asia. Asian stock markets, excluding Japan, have for the most part been the darlings of the equity investment world over the past few years. The mantra from advisers has become almost a creed and as a result I have heard of some significant investments being made based on the view that this was a one way escalator going up and that one would be a fool to miss out. Such blind complacency never ceases to amaze me, especially when dealing with other peoples money!
Indebted UK
If there is one area where we have managed to beat our American cousins in a league table it would appear to be with our accumulation of debt unsecured personal debt. Nearly two thirds of our economy is based on consumer spending and this has expanded as we were all encouraged by dim-witted politicians and greedy bankers to pile up debts and to keep the national spending spree going after all Its good for the country!
Survival of the Leanest
Last week may not have been the final capitulation, but it certainly sent a shudder through many, normally quite stoic, investors. Although warnings of difficult times ahead have been well signposted and warned of, it took the dreadful sales figures from some of the retailers and builders to ram home the effect of what has been developing over the past few months.
Summer Storms and a Summer Sojourn
Unfortunately the very mention of global trade talks normally results in a glazed expression appearing across peoples faces. The Doha round of talks has been going on for seven years now and despite the headlines, most seem to have been resigned to their resulting in an impasse and with all the probability of final failure.
Going for Gold
Four years, some twenty billion pounds, several Free Tibet protestors, and a visually modified opening ceremony later, the games finally got underway at the Beijing Olympics 2008. Its stadium and facilities for the athletes had already received rave reviews as sports men and women the world over waited patiently to have their turn in the spotlight. So naturally it would follow that economists wanted a piece of the action too. No, not content enough in forecasting anaemic growth rates and crippling inflation, it seems some have been busy predicting which of the participating countries would come away with the highest medal count.
Emerging and Submerging
From 1996 to 2000, with the honourable exception of 1999, the asset class of Emerging Market Equities was one of the worst performers, competing only with Gold, Commodities and Japanese equities for the title of Dog of the Year. Yet less than a decade later that same asset class has been continually fêted as the sure fire success for all investors.
The Fine Discipline of Chess
Well that serves me right! Take a couple of weeks holiday and look what happens oil pulls back 8.2%, the $ rises and the £ falls back 4.4% against it, and then to cap it all the Bear starts beating up the Georgians. In just a fortnight the world seems to have taken on a different hue.
Trader or speculator?
I was trying to concentrate on giving a presentation on global markets last week whilst staring out over the stunning St Aubyns Bay in Jersey, and I found myself having to answer a similar question several times on the lines of are speculators ruining our markets? Well in fevered markets it is easy to take a swipe at investors and traders to accuse them of profiting from speculation.