When people ask me what moves shorter-tenor government bond yields, they usually expect the textbook answer: inflation expectations, labour-market data, central-bank guidance and the way those forces interact.
Decisions in uncertainty: how do you know which headlines deserve a response?
Yet some of the most difficult investment decisions I’ve faced have come during periods when markets were reacting to headlines rather than data.
Working through events such as Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory, US-Iran tensions, and periods of political uncertainty in the UK and France, taught me the real challenge is deciding which headline deserves a response.
Lately, I have been thinking about social media and the market-moving headlines it can create. In a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, this form of communication has become more common and influential.
Historically, major policy shifts were communicated through carefully prepared statements, scheduled press conferences and official guidance. Today, markets can move within seconds of a social media post or comment appearing online.
For me, the hard question is not whether headlines move prices. They clearly do. The big question is when a headline is information, when it is noise, and when doing nothing is the most active decision available.
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