7th July 2026

Schroders multi-asset investment views – June 2026

Recent US labour market data supports our view that there is a low risk of a US recession, and our positive view of equities continues to be supported by earnings.

We continue to see a low risk of recession in the United States and view the recent labour market data as consistent with our view. Our overweight position in equities has been supported by corporate earnings momentum and from a sectoral perspective, we have taken profits on our US technology exposure but maintain a positive view on Asian technology. We also maintain our exposure to energy and resource stocks but have switched from UK and Canadian equities to a purer sectoral exposure to these areas. This helps us manage the risk of more prolonged disruption in the Middle East but also reflect the strong industrial momentum that we are observing. 

We have taken profits on our long position in agricultural commodities and for now, our positive bias towards commodities is expressed via equities rather than through physical commodities.

We remain neutral on rates as yield levels now reflect some of our concerns and we are less positive on Australian bonds and BTPs relative to US bonds. We are also less positive on US investment grade debt, as we don’t believe that yield levels relative to cash are attractive, given stagflationary risks and increasing issuance. We maintain our negative view on the Japanese yen position and our neutral/positive view on the US dollar.

All in all, our view on the major risks is unchanged relative to last month. We have harvested some profits and await more provocative levels to take more significant action.

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