12th October 2020

Conundrum

Since we went into lock down on 16th March, out of lockdown into "eat out to help out" and then, depending on where you are back into lockdown again, I would like to ask a question.

Initially this was, according to the slogan at the time “to stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives””.

Lives that should’a, could’a, would'a been saved were not. Some 2 million people – triple the figure for the same time last year – are having to wait more than 18 weeks to start hospital treatment in England, the latest figures show.

The number waiting rose to 2.15 million in July, more than three times the July 2019 figure of 620,454, and the highest number for any calendar month since current records began in August 2007.

Cancers brings around 500 deaths a day in the UK yet Covid still calls the shots?

Lockdowns reduce infections but they do not kill the virus. 

Lockdown release creates more infection outbreaks for which more lockdowns are called for to fix.

This is a viral version of perpetual motion!

Modelling is now using guestimates to try to predict the future. But models are not data. There should be a way to try and replicate what has happened in the past and try to work this up going forward.

And then we hear that the coronavirus rate has soared in Richmond (not Yorkshire). It has the highest positive Covid numbers in the London area, reaching 112.1 new cases per 100,000 people in the week to October 5. Cases have shot up to 222 from 89 in the previous week.

Analysis of 412 positive cases in Richmond since September 20 found that out of 212 cases for which the council has postcodes, 49 were for places including Leeds, Exeter, Manchester and Durham.

They were nearly all in the 17-21 age group. The assumption is, as Richmond has a very high number of students attending universities around the country,   that these cases have been recorded using their home addresses, possibly through details given of their GP.

This is likely to be the case in other major cities and further skews the numbers for university towns as those numbers are not counted in those cities.

The UK statistical regulator has had to step in seven times during the pandemic after Government departments quoted data that had not been made available to the public. The head of the Office for Statistics Regulation, Ed Humpson, said such incidents were 'disappointing'. A bit of an understatement!

Stopping the economy again, based on some very selective use of, dare I say, dodgy data and a dismissal of contradictory expert data makes no sense to me, does it for you? 

If so, please enlighten me as to why?

Panacea Comment