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Industry News_
Too Good To Be True?
Jobs figures bring welcome relief was the leading headline but in my view not so much relief as astonishment. Last weeks unemployment figures for the UK were heralded as the lowest for thirty years at 5.1% (down 0.1%) with even the numbers claiming jobseekers allowance declining. Our working population has risen by 465,000 in the past year to a total of 29.51 million and apparently this is the biggest increase for a decade. Just to add to the unremitting joy, vacancies were also at their highest since the current records began in 2001 and even redundancies were at their lowest, 106,000, since 1990. Surely a wondrous day for the British economy?
Please Sir, Can I have some more?
What do Chinese pork, Indian rice, Australian wheat and U.S. corn have in common? Unfortunately right now, a great deal! Their prices have relentlessly marched upwards in the past year and they have the dubious honour of contributing to the current plight of food price inflation that is gripping the world.
Is this the worlds biggest hedge fund?
What do you call a hedge fund with a government? Probably Iceland. For a country with the population approximately the same as that of Scunthorpe, this little nation has made a remarkable amount of noise over recent years. Better known for its turbulent geology and hot springs, it has more recently become known as a purveyor of equally hot money into various areas and especially the UK economy. As an example, the investment business Baugur has included an eclectic range of relatively small holdings in a variety of assets and reads more like a list of the typical British high street or shopping mall.
Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
If Mark Twain were alive today uttering these now famous words, I wonder just how amused he would be with how we have become subservient to a plethora of numbers. From exit polls directing the strategy of a presidential campaign, to TV shows entitled 8 out of 10 cats and politicians citing figures to convince us the economy is in fact quite healthy in their capable hands, statistics are now inescapable.
Going to L in a hand cart
Well what shape is it? has been one of the most recent questions I have been faced with. Is it going to be a V or U shaped recovery, or maybe a long bath shape? Of course one would love to come out with a firm and clear idea of how the market will come bouncing back, but of course one cant because not only would it be an irresponsible guess but also because nobody actually knows.
Wizard Learning: Review of year end tax planning A guide for those advising individuals and businesses
Somewhere over Sumatra
Singapore I regard as my second home tidier, warmer and generally better organised than West London. Although there are sometimes criticisms about the staid and reliable nature of Singapores operations, frankly I would regard that as great compliment. In Singapore things work and work well. For a still young nation, they have a lot to teach many more patronising older nations. After all if you turn on a switch the lights come on there are many areas of the region and the world where that does not happen all the time including on occasion in my house in London.
Sunshine and Roses
Here at the headquarters of Seven Investment Management, we in the investment management team are renowned for our rather pessimistic economic views and are affectionately called the doom and gloom corner. Mostly we wear this badge of honour with some pride and take comfort from the fact our cups are always half empty (incidentally, whats the difference? Half empty, half full, at least we can all agree that the cup isnt full yet!) However after spending the last two days trapped in a building (where I just happened to be attending the Euromoney Bond Congress) with fellow bond investors, chief investment officers and chief economists of some large investment managers, speakers representing the OECD, the Treasury of the United States, Central Bankers (the list is endless but distinguished), I came to this conclusion. We in the investment team are now faced with an identity crisis! Compared to the doom mongering I have listened to, we are positively full of sunshine and roses!
The Refined Art of Rock Knocking
Oh what a chorus of half baked ill informed wingers. Since the decision to nationalise the Rock last Sunday, we seem to have suffered the rants and ravings of anybody with a view about the apparent impending demise of this institution.
There will be blood
What an apt title this recently released film about an early rapacious American oil magnate has provided a most pertinent title for some comments this week. The film may be about the oil industry but it is the banking and financial services area that really concerns me.
Xin Nián Hao! Happy Rat
For my Chinese cousins 8 is a very lucky number and thus this year should be one of good joss, but so far the outlook would appear far from positive in fact more like a 4. We have all become used to, or even complacent about, the continuing growth story of the Chinese economy. After all, we have seen record reserves, record exports, and come to that, record imports and seemingly any statistic that comes out of the Peoples Republic is designed to impress.