Industry news and views from Panacea and our partners.
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AXA IM: US stocks hit new record as Trump elected US President and Fed cuts interest rates
US stocks soared as Donald Trump was elected US President, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates for the second time in a row.
AXA IM: Will COP29 be an enabling COP?
The United Nations Climate Change Conference COP29 follows the first-ever stocktake of global climate action.
AXA IM: Multi-Asset Investments Views: Bond market optimism runs into reality again
Historically, bond investors have either been associated with a certain pessimism or well-informed optimism while equity investors have been portrayed as eternal optimists.
AXA IM: Ingenuity and opportunity: Navigating the path to net zero
The United Nations climate change conference COP29 will be an important milestone in the journey to net zero
AXA IM: Policy Mixology
Paradoxically, although it is now consensus that the Fed should have been more prudent in September, the market is now almost exactly aligned with the FOMC’s dot plot.
AXA IM: Bonds, bridges, and burdens: China’s local government debt in focus
It is widely acknowledged that China’s “economic miracle” over the past three decades was largely driven by industrialisation – shifting from an agrarian economy to an industrialised one.
AXA IM: Avoided Emissions: Why it matters to investors to account for what does not exist
To stop global warming, society needs to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reach a state of net zero – the point at which the GHG concentration in the atmosphere stabilises and is no longer increasing. Such a goal requires an energy transition.
AXA IM: Leading the charge
Surge in US data centre growth is powering renewable energy investment opportunities
AXA IM: Following a bumper 2024, what’s next for the US economy and market?
November’s presidential election will clearly be important as we look to 2025. One potential outcome is likely to see something of a continuation of the economic policies which have helped growth since the recovery from the pandemic.
AXA IM: COP16: A crucial step towards achieving global biodiversity targets
The upcoming United Nations (UN) biodiversity conference, COP16, marks a pivotal next step in implementing the Kunming-Montreal Agreement signed by 196 governments at 2022’s COP15.
AXA IM: Eurozone – High stakes amid political fracture risks
The US election’s potential impact on the Eurozone is rather binary – a Kamala Harris victory is unlikely to have a material effect but a Donald Trump win would. Trump wants to narrow the US trade deficit and the Eurozone is a key contributor to this.
AXA IM: How generative AI is transforming e-commerce
Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing what’s possible in online retail with exciting capabilities, innovative companies and promising investment opportunities in e-commerce.
AXA IM: Shaken, not stirred
Following a long period of low yields and price destruction – driven by the monetary tightening cycle - bonds have very much bounced back in 2024.
AXA IM: Rolling down the mountain
The path to lower interest rates is clear - at least in market pricing terms. Markets suggest we are heading towards a 3% Fed Funds Rate and a 2% policy rate in Europe.
AXA IM: Inflation has fallen to the sweet spot for equities, especially small caps.
Investors undoubtedly want to see the value of their assets grow over time, but many also want to generate a regular income. That could be from a savings account, or investing in stocks or bonds, for example – or a combination of all three.
AXA IM: China reaction: Time is running out as growth slows across the board
Time is running out for China this year to achieve its growth targets, but also to avoid a more protracted slowdown.
AXA IM: Taking the plunge: Switching from saving to investing
With interest rates no longer languishing at their prolonged lows, the higher income available from cash savings means many individuals are perhaps considering why they would risk their money in the stock market.
AXA IM: Calculate allowance availability and usage based on contributions and withdrawals taken.
August’s volatility spike has not proved serious enough to derail markets’ robust year-to-date performance.
AXA IM: Well balanced and smooth
The prevailing narrative remains one of impending global interest rate cuts and the avoidance of recession.
AXA IM: Pre-emptive vs Reactive
The early August equity market shock may already feel like a distant memory, but some key market metrics have changed over the summer.
AXA IM: US reaction: Powell speech – getting into a hole?
Powell states disinflation confidence has grown and “time has come for policy to adjust”
AXA IM: UK reaction: A further step in the right direction for the MPC
Today’s labour market data were a mixed bag, but on the whole continue to point to developing slack and easing wage pressures; we remain confident the Bank of England will push through a further 25bp cut in November.
AXA IM: Does recent US labour market weakness indicate a looming recession or is it a false alarm?
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation improved to 0.5% year on year in July, up from 0.2% in June, which aligned with our expectations but exceeded market predictions of 0.3%.
AXA IM: Falling into Place
The US economy is starting to struggle – even if we think the softness in the latest payroll should not be overstated. The market is reacting hard, with in addition a fading “Trump trade”. The “bad winds” from America will matter of course for policy makers everywhere, making in particular the BOJ’s latest move even bolder.
AXA IM: France: political uncertainty to persist
The left alliance NFP secured c. 180 seats in the National Assembly – still far from the majority threshold – the centrist Ensemble came second with c. 168 and the far-right RN third with just 143, well below poll projections.
AXA IM: UK reaction: In the right direction
May’s labour market release will bring some comfort to the MPC, following June’s CPI data, with growing evidence of looser conditions and easing wage growth.
AXA IM: UK reaction: Still at target, but services remains sticky.
Headline inflation remained at the 2% target in June – in line with the MPC’s forecast, though slightly above the 1.9% expected by analysts – but sticky services inflation remains a problem.
AXA IM: Changing of the Guards
Macro management principles holding firm since the 1980s/1990s are coming under criticism, including within mainstream political forces. Paradoxically though, doubts on the role of central banks are emerging while they are on the cusp of winning their war against inflation.
AXA IM: Looking for some Glue
Radical options removed in France, but finding a sense of direction remains tricky.