Industry news and views from Panacea and our partners.
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AXA IM: German election preview: Aiming at a grand reset
Germany holds snap elections on 23 February - nine months ahead of schedule, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's ‘traffic light’ coalition with the Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP) in November 2024.
AXA IM: Labour Market Gap
US labour market fuels the resistance of US interest rates, which is not making an already complex fiscal equation any easier.
AXA IM: CIO Views: Steady income should not be overlooked
Many bond investors have been enjoying higher income returns as the average rates (coupons) being paid on bond indices has been rising since 2021 and are likely to continue to do so as lower coupon bonds issued before 2021 mature.
AXA IM: CIO Views: Bond returns potentially higher in 2025
Many investors have been enjoying higher income returns as the average market-weighted coupon on bond indices has been rising since 2021 – and are likely to continue to do so as lower coupon bonds issued before 2021 mature.
AXA IM: This month's edition considers stock market exposure to US tariff risk, plus new analysis of regional buying and selling trends
Human life and economic prosperity are dependent on the benefits provided by nature. Biodiversity loss puts the ecosystems upon which societies depend, as well as the global economy, at risk.
AXA IM: Investing in Biodiversity
The urgent need to prevent and mitigate biodiversity loss can create responsible investment opportunities driven by increasingly stringent and tangible global regulations, long-term targets and corporate reporting commitments.
AXA IM: Under Surveillance
US core inflation rose above expectations in January. Some residual seasonality may be at play, but the US has been experiencing a rebound in underlying price pressure since the end of last summer.
AXA IM: January Op-ed - Macro Roller Coaster
Despite the “data fog” and uncertainty on the extent to which President Trump will deliver on his platform, we remain in the “US inflation resumption” camp.
AXA IM: January Global Macro Monthly - A new Golden age
A new policy direction in the world’s largest economy would always be important but now more than ever as the US has enjoyed strong growth in recent years while other large economies have struggled.
AXA IM: Multi-Asset Investments Views: Not MAGA-bullish but cautiously optimistic
Donald Trump has been remarkably active since he was sworn in as the 47th US President on 20 January - signing executive orders, particularly on social matters and pushing his deregulation agenda but showing less urgency on trade tariffs.
AXA IM: Technology sector volatility: Investors spooked by China’s AI startup
Technology stocks experience bout of volatility after new Chinese AI model cast doubts over US dominance of the sector.
AXA IM: Five things to consider for Fixed income in 2025
Yields in fixed income are high versus historical levels – the Bloomberg Global Aggregate index yield level is in the 78th percentile of yields over the past 20 years, and the 88th over the past 10 years.
AXA IM: Postcard from Davos
The US President’s speech in Davos may have embodied “Peak Trump”. With the European response still hindered by internal difficulties, the ECB, as usual, will have to provide a “bridge”
AXA IM: The good, the bad, the opportunities: green bonds in 2025
Last year saw the green bonds market achieve record levels of issuance and outperform the conventional bond market.
AXA IM: Every which way, markets are ok
It is early days but nothing that US president Donald Trump has said or done has caused a bad reaction in financial markets. Quite the contrary. After a tricky first few days of the year, equities are up, and so are bonds.
AXA IM: Multi Asset Views January 2025
Laurent Clavel shares his insights into what has happened across the fixed income and equity markets, where we are finding opportunities and our outlook.
AXA IM: Multi-Asset Investments Views: Fed up with dots
The economic backdrop continues to indicate a positive outlook for risk assets. Our Macroeconomic Research team expects above-consensus US GDP growth in 2025 and, if valuations are elevated, they are not quite exuberant (yet).
AXA IM: Beyond the Respite
The dataflow has been kind last week, allowing for a respite on the bond market. AXA IM review Michael Pettis’ paper on trade tariffs as a current account rebalancing tool and Setser and Tortoir’s proposal for a more muscular approach in Germany to Chinese competition
AXA IM: Bond time
Despite higher yields, the world is not walking away from bonds - or threatening not to finance government deficits. US Treasury long-term yields of between 4% and 5% are reflective of where the economy is and that the decade of low interest rates is well behind us.
AXA IM: Bad Timing (for everyone)
The UK is a clear victim of bond market contagion. Yet, we think the deterioration in the macro outlook will ultimately allow the BoE to provide more support than what the market is currently pricing.
AXA IM: Three Questions for 2025
What will be the “transformation rate” from Trump’s electoral platform to policy implementation? Will China go “all in” with its stimulus and engage on a proper model change? Can we “Make Europe Great Again”? At least one, possibly three key elections ahead this year.
AXA IM: Take two: Global markets end strong year; Eurozone factory activity continues to shrink
Global stock markets enjoyed a strong year in 2024, aided by investor optimism over falling inflation and easing monetary policy as well as growth in artificial intelligence and the US election result.
AXA IM: Fund in 5ive: Presenting the AXA Global Short Duration Bond Fund
Nicolas Trindade, lead manager of the AXA Global Short Duration Bond Fund, says investors need to go back to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 to see the high levels of yield that are currently available within the asset class.
AXA IM: Multi-Asset Investments Views: Guess Who’s Back?
The strength of the US economy continues to indicate a positive outlook for US equity markets, while a decisive election result removed the political uncertainty – a positive for risk sentiment. Looking into 2025, we still see US equities outperforming the rest of the world, with a transatlantic divergence in growth and fiscal stances.
AXA IM: Multi-Asset Investments Views: Bond market optimism runs into reality again
Historically, bond investors have either been associated with a certain pessimism or well-informed optimism while equity investors have been portrayed as eternal optimists. Recent events have challenged these notions with bond markets expressing an unusual degree of optimism.
AXA IM: Outlook 2025: Trump-starting the global economy
There is much uncertainty over future US policy, but growth, stable inflation and lower interest rates should support markets. Fundamentally, we believe the outlook remains favourable for both bonds and equities in 2025.
AXA IM: Outlook 2025: Highlights and investment implications
Two major uncertainties lie at the heart of the global economic and investment outlook - to what extent will US President-elect Donald Trump translate campaign promises into policy and how successful will China be in reigniting its economy?
AXA IM: Trump 2.0: déjà vu? Why investors should consider hedging inflation risk
Back in 2016, there were massive fears of global recession as oil prices dropped and China was believed to be slowing down.
AXA IM: What the geopolitical changes mean for fixed income
The last 18 months have, overall, seen fixed income offer investors positive total returns with companies weathering macro uncertainty and yields still at attractive levels.
AXA IM: Three key net zero investment opportunities
Investors aiming to allocate capital to help support net zero objectives, can consider two broad ways to do this within equities and fixed income.