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Fidelity Perspectives: The week ahead, volatility returns and political risks

Investment News for Financial Advisers and Paraplanners

12 Sep 2016

Fidelity Perspectives: The week ahead, volatility returns and political risks

THE WEEK AHEAD

Anna Stupnytska, Global Economist at Fidelity International, highlights what she will be focusing on this week:

  • Tuesday, 13 September – China activity data (industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment)

Anna’s view: “Weaker July data suggested that China’s mini cycle may have peaked amid a less accommodative policy stance. This week’s data for August will provide more clarity on this. But with the backdrop of globally accommodative financial conditions, the slowdown is unlikely to be significant enough to justify policy intervention.”

  • Weds/Thurs, 14-15 September  – UK unemployment, retail sales and Bank of England’s rate decision

Anna’s view: “UK data remains in focus as we try to gauge the impact of the Brexit vote on the economy. Given it is still early days, the labour market and retail sales are unlikely to show any related weakness just yet, although the retail series tends to be volatile. After the aggressive easing package in August, the Bank of England will stay on hold as it needs to gather further evidence on how the economy is coping with the Brexit shock, before considering further action.”

  • Thursday, 15 September – US data (August US retail sales and industrial production, September Philadelphia Fed and Empire surveys)

Anna’s view: “The August weakness in US business confidence surveys has been puzzling, potentially suggesting US growth rolling over in the second half of 2016. Preliminary surveys for September will give us further information on whether this downturn is genuine or just a one-off blip.”

Follow Anna on Twitter: @AnnaStupnytska

INSIGHTS FROM FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL’S INVESTMENT TEAM

Clockwise: A more volatile autumn?

August proved to be a typically quiet month for global financial markets, with the Vix "fear index" falling to its second lowest level since the 2008 crisis. But as politics and policy move back into focus, the Fidelity Multi Asset Team outline how they are positioned for a likely increase in market volatility from here.

Reassessing political risks

Political risk has risen sharply following Brexit. Further referendums are planned in Europe, while the US faces an unedifying presidential contest between Trump and Clinton. As uncertainty abounds, Ayesha Akbar discusses whether the traditional view of EM posing higher political risks still holds true.

WEBCAST

What next for emerging markets?

Speaker: Nick Price, Portfolio Manager, Fidelity Global Emerging Markets Fund

Date: 15 September 2015

Time: 9am

Following a prolonged period of weakness, emerging market equities have posted strong gains in 2016. A recovery in oil prices, paring back of US rate expectations and the hunt for yield are amongst the catalysts. In this live and interactive webcast, Nick Price will take your questions as he reflects on the outlook for emerging market equities. Join Nick’s webcast here.

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