24 Jun 2016
The UK’s momentous decision to leave the EU brings long-lasting political and economic consequences. We expect European leaders to focus on fending off domestic populist movements emboldened by the British exit and on preventing the entire EU edifice from falling apart. This points to a tough negotiating stance toward the UK and less focus on much-needed structural reforms. We expect attitudes on immigration to harden, and see the risk of a protracted standoff feeding uncertainty.